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The Value-Capture Scorecard: Who Keeps the Value in African M&A

The deal-count reports tell you an African company was bought. This one tells you who ended up owning the value. The inaugural scorecard verdicts every ownership-moving deal we track on a single axis — exported, retained, or mixed — and the early read is stark: value is leaving the continent far more often than it stays.

PREMIUM REPORT2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z
14
OWNERSHIP-MOVING DEALS VERDICTED SO FAR — THE SCORECARD, EXPANDING QUARTERLY
10 / 14
DEALS WHERE THE VALUE WAS EXPORTED OFF THE CONTINENT
2 / 14
DEALS WHERE VALUE STAYED IN AFRICAN HANDS — FLUTTERWAVE'S MONO BUY AND CHIVITA'S RETURN TO UAC
2 / 14
MIXED — VALUE BROADLY AFRICAN, BUT MAJORITY CONTROL STILL CROSSED A BORDER
7
SECTORS SCORED TO DATE: BANKING, BEAUTY, DRINKS, FINTECH, MEDIA, MUSIC, TELECOMS

THE SCORE, AND THE NUMBER THAT SHOULD WORRY YOU

Every tracker in African tech counts the same thing: how many deals closed, and for how much. TechCabal's headline — 84 deals, US$11.4bn in 2026 — is real and useful. But a deal count measures activity, not ownership. It tells you an African company changed hands; it says nothing about whether the value changed continents.

That is the question this scorecard exists to answer, and the early read is blunt. Of the ownership-moving deals we have verdicted so far, ten of fourteen exported the value off the continent. Two kept it home — Flutterwave's all-stock buy of Mono, and Coca-Cola's Chivita and Hollandia returning to Nigeria's UAC. Two more — Nedbank's US$855m move on NCBA and Vodacom's rise to majority control of Safaricom — we score as mixed: intra-African, but with control crossing borders.

Ten exported, two retained, two mixed. That ratio is the story the celebration around record M&A volumes leaves out — and it is the number every founder, acquirer and policymaker on the continent should be watching.

PREMIUM REPORT

The full report is part of the Intelligence membership.