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The Value-Capture Scorecard: Who Keeps the Value in African M&A

The deal-count reports tell you an African company was bought. This one tells you who ended up owning the value. The inaugural scorecard verdicts every ownership-moving deal we track on a single axis — exported, retained, or mixed — and the early read is stark: value is leaving the continent far more often than it stays.

PREMIUM REPORT2026-09-02T09:00:00.000Z
8
OWNERSHIP-MOVING DEALS VERDICTED SO FAR — THE INAUGURAL SCORECARD, EXPANDING QUARTERLY
6 / 8
DEALS WHERE THE VALUE WAS EXPORTED OFF THE CONTINENT
1 / 8
DEALS WHERE VALUE STAYED IN AFRICAN HANDS — FLUTTERWAVE'S BUY OF MONO
1 / 8
MIXED — INTRA-AFRICAN, BUT CONTROL STILL CROSSED A BORDER (NEDBANK–NCBA)
4
SECTORS SCORED TO DATE: BANKING, BEAUTY, FINTECH, MUSIC

THE SCORE, AND THE NUMBER THAT SHOULD WORRY YOU

Every tracker in African tech counts the same thing: how many deals closed, and for how much. TechCabal's headline — 84 deals, US$11.4bn in 2026 — is real and useful. But a deal count measures activity, not ownership. It tells you an African company changed hands; it says nothing about whether the value changed continents.

That is the question this scorecard exists to answer, and the early read is blunt. Of the ownership-moving deals we have verdicted so far, six of eight exported the value off the continent. Exactly one — Flutterwave's all-stock buy of Mono — kept it home. One more, Nedbank's US$855m move on Kenya's NCBA, we score as mixed: intra-African, but with control moving south.

Six exported, one retained, one mixed. That ratio is the story the celebration around record M&A volumes leaves out — and it is the number every founder, acquirer and policymaker on the continent should be watching.

PREMIUM REPORT

The full report is part of the Intelligence membership.